Easter update from Macquarie Private Wealth
March has continued another great month against a backdrop of average data. Bearish (negative) investors are scratching their collective heads, and wondering how a long grinding cycle (LGC) environment is so supportive of shares and property in the short and medium term?
What we are seeing – Australia:
• The recent NSW election result has shown that consultative leadership can shepherd difficult and non-populist agendas, past an increasingly fickle electorate.
• There is reduced, short term pressure on falling interest rates. However we believe in lower rates for longer.
• Real estate and the domestic share market markets will continue to be well supported – assuming no policy changes by policy makers.
• Weak demand for iron ore and commodities and a strengthening USD$. Minimise commodities, mining and mining services exposure.
• We expect the AUD$ to continue to fall toward USD$0.70.
• Global focused investors have performed very well. The “bull market” is intact, whilst sentiment readings are still saying it is still “uncool to be bullish equities”.
• Japanese and European equities continue to quietly make gains, with comparable valuations still well below domestic and US peers.
• We believe that the USD$ rally will be sustained in the medium term. This is a supportive tailwind for international investors.
• When 90% of the world’s GDP (gross domestic product index) are 0%, interest rates are 0% to negative, and government debt (bond yields) are 2% or less, share markets are one of the best performing asset classes.
• We are targeting international investment exposures – particularly in Japan and Europe.
• Focus on dividend paying investments, and growth profile companies that have growing, yet defensive earnings.
• Our portfolio strategies are concentrated on minimising volatility, and maximise long term, risk adjusted portfolio returns.
Thank you. Wishing you and your family a safe and Happy Easter.
Russell, Carl, Geoff, Alice and the Team
Russell Jones l Senior Wealth Adviser l CFP® Dip FS (FP)
Macquarie Private Wealth l Representative of Macquarie Equities Limited